Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies and the Republican pollster for the survey, said in the report that “more voters expect things to get worse by a 41/29% margin, leaving the electorate in a distinctly sour mood heading into the midterm election cycle.” The survey was conducted in July 2026. The pessimistic reading marks the highest percentage since December 2023, when the country was emerging from pandemic-era inflation.
Consumer Behavior and Price Concerns
In response to higher prices, 47 percent of respondents reported cutting back on essential items such as food and medical care, up 6 percentage points from the April survey. Two-thirds said they are reducing purchases of nonessentials like eating out and entertainment, also up 5 points from the prior poll. Lower-income households are being hit hardest: 60 percent of those earning under $30,000 are reducing essential outlays, compared with 35 percent of those earning over $100,000.
Despite a recent decline in gasoline prices, the survey’s Democratic pollster, Jay Campbell of Hart Research, said the drop is not enough to offset accumulated cost increases. “People are still paying a lot more for stuff than they were a year and a half ago, two years ago, and that’s recent enough in memory that it still hurts and it still drives a lot of anger,” Campbell said. The findings align with broader trends of weakening consumer sentiment and rising economic insecurity noted in other reports, including a decline in manufacturing and retail activity cited by the Trends Journal [1].
Trump Approval and Economic Handling
President Donald Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 40 percent, with 59 percent disapproving, according to the survey. That is 1 point worse than the April figure, though within the margin of error. On his handling of the economy, 60 percent disapprove while 38 percent approve. The net approval rating of minus 22 on the economy is the most underwater Trump has been in his political career, the survey reported.
On inflation and the cost of living, 68 percent disapprove and 31 percent approve. The war with Iran also draws strong negative sentiment: 63 percent disapprove of Trump’s handling, with a net approval of minus 28, 3 points worse than in April. The findings come as Germany’s finance minister blamed Trump’s “irresponsible war in Iran” for harming the European economy [4], and as some U.S. allies refused to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [5]. Trump’s approval on foreign policy remains notably weak among non-MAGA Republicans: only 47 percent of that subgroup approve of his handling of Iran, compared with 86 percent of MAGA Republicans.
Congressional Preference and Partisan Divide
Despite deep dissatisfaction with Trump and the economy, Democrats hold only a 4-point advantage over Republicans on which party should control Congress, unchanged from the April survey. Both pollsters described a “locked-in” electorate with little cross-party movement. Partisans are digging in and increasing support for their own party, largely offsetting each other and yielding no net change in congressional preference, according to the survey.
The survey also found that self-described MAGA candidates face headwinds: 57 percent of voters say they would be unlikely to support such a candidate, while half are unlikely to support a candidate endorsed by Trump. Democratic socialist candidates fared only slightly better, with 52 percent saying they would not support them. The partisan divide is reflected in midterm election forecasts, with some analysts noting that every incumbent president except three over the past century has suffered substantial midterm losses [3].
Key Issue Split and Iran War Views
On the most important issues, voters are sharply divided by party. Democrats hold a 7-point advantage on the cost of food and groceries, the top issue overall, and a 3-point lead on protecting democracy. Republicans lead by 22 points on immigration and border security, the largest advantage on any of the 10 issues listed in the survey. Democrats also lead by 6 points on housing and 18 points on healthcare costs.
Regarding the war with Iran, support for military action has declined. Forty-eight percent of the public now believe the military action against Iran is worth it to disrupt the country’s nuclear program, down from 53 percent in April. Fifty percent say it is not worth it, up from 44 percent. The president’s approval on Iran fell to a net minus 28. Among non-MAGA Republicans, approval of Trump’s Iran handling is only 50 percent, while 86 percent of MAGA Republicans approve. The conflict has been costly: Democratic congressmen cited 13 U.S. service members killed and over 140 injured [2]. Some analysts argue the war was a mistake that Trump ended only after facing military reality [6].
Conclusion: Implications for Midterms
The CNBC survey reveals a deeply pessimistic electorate that holds Trump and his policies responsible for economic hardship and the Iran conflict, yet Democrats have not translated that dissatisfaction into a decisive lead for control of Congress. The narrow 4-point advantage suggests a polarized electorate where partisans remain loyal despite widespread discontent. Economic pessimism, inflation concerns, and the Iran war are likely to remain central issues heading into the midterm campaign, but the locked-in nature of the electorate may limit large swings. As the pollsters noted, the current environment does not point to a wave election for either party.
References
- Trends-Journal-2024-12-03
- Democratic Leaders Say Iran War Is Costing American Taxpayers. NTD. March 19, 2026.
- Midterm Palpitations. ZeroHedge. February 13, 2026.
- Trump's 'irresponsible war' to blame for economic slowdown, German minister says. BBC. May 7, 2026.
- Trump No Longer Wants Allies To Send Warships To Open The Strait Of Hormuz. The War Zone. March 17, 2026.
- Trump, the Democrats, and the Courage To End a Failed War. Antiwar.com. June 19, 2026.
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