Both Trump and Harris have been campaigning heavily across urban Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as well as rural areas like Erie County, as Pennsylvania remains a key battleground state in the upcoming election. The Keystone State, which historically voted for the eventual election winner in 48 of the last 59 elections, went to Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2016.
For Harris, Pennsylvania is essential to her "Blue Wall" strategy that also includes Michigan and Wisconsin, as it would secure her exactly 270 Electoral College votes if all other blue states hold. Meanwhile, Trump sees Pennsylvania as a likely state to flip due to its demographic composition, including a higher proportion of white voters without a college degree. This makes it more favorable to him than Michigan and Wisconsin.
The trend over the last three Quinnipiac surveys indicates how the dynamics have shifted between the two candidates.
In an Oct. 7 poll, Harris leads Trump by two points, with 49 percent of support among respondents compared to 47 percent of Trump. A Sept. 16 poll shows a more favorable result for Harris, wherein she received 51 percent of support among likely voters, compared to Trump's 46 percent.
But the most recent survey, conducted from Oct. 24 to 28 among 2,186 likely voters in Pennsylvania, reveals that Trump now leads Harris by one point. Based on the result, Trump garners 47 percent support compared to Harris' 46 percent.
Poll proves Harris is struggling to win male voters
Aside from gaining the lead, the poll also highlights a widening gender-based division.
According to the Oct. 28 survey, men favor Trump over Harris by a wide margin of 57 percent to 37 percent while women lean toward Harris, 55 percent to 39 percent. This represents a notable shift from the Oct. 7 poll, where Trump held a smaller lead among men (52 percent to 41 percent), while Harris had a similar level of support among women. "The gender gap widens with Trump increasing his lead among men, as what remains a very tight race heads into the final stretch," Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said.
These results further prove the claim that Harris has been struggling to win male voters because she is a woman.
Liz Shuler, the president of the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO), said that support for Harris might have an overall strength, but sexism is likely undermining this support, especially in some unions.
"Let's be honest, there are people who look at a female candidate and at face value dismiss her because, you know, she's perceived as not being presidential," she said. "No one questions Donald Trump in that way." (Related: POLL: Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris among Hispanic male voters in Texas.)
James Maravelias, the head of the Delaware AFL-CIO, echoed this statement. He added that support for Harris among male voters has been weaker due to her liberal track record on social issues.
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