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Whatifalthist, a young commentator (younger than me!) is one of the best geopolitics commentators out there today. He has publicly said he thinks this election cycle will result in a US Civil War, most likely this year… But very likely in the fallout years, same way the election of Abraham Lincoln in Nov 1860 took until April of 1861 for Fort Sumter to be fired upon.

(Article republished from Anarchonomicon.com)

I’m not as aggressive as Whatifalthist, I think there’s a lot of scenarios where a major regional war in the Middle-East occurs, or WW3 begins with Russia (we’ve gotten very close to Nuke launches during the war with Ukraine) as factions in the deep state push for an October surprise if they think Trump might win.

Likewise I think there’s numerous ways where a crisis could happen that results in a minor war or last minute corrupt compromise that lets America limp on to 2028? Maybe 2032?

If you look at the Russian revolution, there was the Russo-Japanese war that was supposed to resolve the Russian Empire’s geopolitical and internal problems, then Russia lost, then the revolution of 1905 occured which left the Tzar in charge with a nominal “Not a Constitution” and a sort-of democratically elected duma… Then it limped on sort-of on and off in a state of low level almost civil war (the Prime minister Stolypin was assassinated right in front of the Tzar and his family at the opera in the period by radical leftists)… And then ww1 happened, and then the february revolution of 1917 happened, and then the October revolution that brought the Bolsheviks to power… THEN they had their full on civil war.

So a lot of crazy stuff can happen between even a great war or a Trump assassination and civil war… or We could go zero to civil war in 6 months like in 1860-61… it wouldn’t be the states doing it, but if something suddenly motivated 0.01% of armed Americans to each kill 1 government/or rival political group’s official or burn down 1 government or rival political group’s building in a six month period… That alone would cause a breakdown in government authority across the country and probably a massive streisand effect whereby partisan actors are pressured to condemn and demand insane policies or police responses as a result, and then the “pre-mature” rebellion against tyranny or “tyranny” creates the unambiguous Tyranny that justifies the rebellion and allows the early rebels to start recruiting and conscripting to their movement.

Repeat that on both sides with enough rounds fired and bombs detonated, and you have northern Ireland or South Vietnam… but in a country with more guns than people.

However I want to emphasize: a US civil war is virtually inevitable in the next 10 years… no matter what is done at the federal level or who gains the reigns… The US government’s budgetary situation, the insane and death spiraling levels of dependence on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans benefits, Welfare, Public housing, and food stamps, and the declining US Geopolitical situation and its impact on the world dollar demand (look up “petrodollar”) ensures that the inevitable budget crisis will immediately be felt either in hyper-inflation, hyper-taxation (Read: property confiscation. why do you think they’re pushing “unrealized capital gains”? they’re preparing to take your retirement fund and house in a budget crisis), and cut spending resulting in loss of service, rioting, and collapse.

You can read my deep dive into the budget problems:

BUT that is not what this piece is about… A Second US civil war would be an event bigger than world war 2. Civil Conflicts would almost immediately spill over into Europe, Canada, the Cartels would get involved from Mexico, the Migrant madness would take on a newer more insane dimension (as one or the other faction tries, and probably fails to employ the dregs of the third world against their rivals) any impact on global supply chains would probably cause mass famines and apocalyptic wars throughout Africa, the Middle-East, and Southeast Asia.

But that is also NOT what this piece is about… These are just the basics I feel the need to share every time I talk about the matter to show WHY any of these scenarios result in global cascades of unpredictability, instability, and apocalyptic consequences.

The point of this piece, what I hope will be the first in a series of Civil War Scenarios, is to wargame out different possible dynamics that could play out in the event of a second civil war, or the equivalent consequent wars that would probably affect your country.

Unlike the Rationalist community or the wider prediction world, the point of these scenarios will NOT be to assign probability likelihoods to given events… but to create detailed hypothetical that will hopefully illustrate dynamic or uncover concerns.

Any given event has a relatively small likelihood of occuring, and even several VERY likely events events with a likelihood of 50%… When stacked, collapse in probability.

Even if you think it’s a 50% chance civil war occurs, and 50% the faction that forms in DC will occupy Virginia, and that having done so it’d be 50% they’d have to patrol the Appalachian Highlands there, and that having done so it’s 50% likely they’d get bogged down in mountain warfare there… then in this hypothetical just taking those probabilities credulously, the odds, from the perspective of today) that mountain warfare erupt there would be only 6.25% likelihood (50% x 50% x 50% x 50%).

From a probabilistic perspective it’s very hard to say ANYTHING definite about the future once you get in the garden of forking paths. Is the crisis of the 2020s going to be Civil War in the US? WW3 against Russia in Europe? A regional war in the Middle-East and America marching on Tehran? A budget crisis and mass civil unrest/weimar style financial social collapse? Or might we get 2 or more of these in a bizarre unpredictable order with odd time delays? (the last one)

Who predicted Hurricane Helene and the abysmal response? Yet if you asked anyone who followed previous events and responses closely, and had some mild subject matter knowledge WHAT would have happened IF a once in 100 year rainfall hit the upper-south/Apalachia… they probably could have predicted how it would play out with a shocking amount of detail.

For that reason in this series I’d like to wargame out some scenarios, focusing less on their likelihood than the dynamics that they reveal.

That hopefully if enough detailed pictures are painted in advance and enough dynamic described, that we’ll guess at some of the details and dynamics that actually occur.

Air Siege

The thing about the famous Joe Biden quote above is… In a hypothetical US civil War, the Government might not really have F-16s (or F-18s, F-22s and F-35s… Whatever the state of the phaseout is (looks like never)).

Aside from the possibility of maintenance supply chains, ground crews, and pilots being potential on the ground targets in a hypothetical frontless insurgency/guerilla conflict as many have suggested, which could seriously degrade the tempo and feasibility of operating much of the US air force… In Between arms shipments Ukraine and Israel the US arsenal is currently incredibly depleted, and a majority of that arsenal must be retained in strategic reserve against the possibility of near peer enemies like Russia and China launching high intensity wars against the US empire.

If we look at Gaza, the population there has endured what might just be the largest aerial bombing campaign in history. 70,000 ton of conventional bombs, more than the ww2 bombing campaigns against Dresden, Hamburg, and London combined, have been dropped on an area 25 miles long by 3.5-7.5 miles wide. 141 square miles.

I don’t have the stats but per square mile this might be the largest conventional bombing campaign in history… potentially beating out, in one year, even the US bombing of the Iron Triangle in the Cu Chi district of Vietnam across 10 years 1965-’75.

And yet even taking the Lancet’s all cause casualty estimates of 189,000 dead (8.5% of the pre-war population of 2.2 million) ~90% of the people of Gaza are still alive, and Hamas basically has the same, or a SLIGHTLY INCREASED fighting force from 40k pre-war to 30-50k today (they’ve had a lot of volunteers in light of 1 in 10 husbands losing their wife and 1 in 10 fathers losing their child).

Simply put aerial bombardment has NEVER broken the will of a populace to fight, people are driven by MARGINAL incentives… if an old lady is just as likely to be bombed as a bloodthirsty young radical, there’s no incentive not to be a young radical… And a lot to be one (you might get to avenge your grandma, and it’s not like you being a pacifist loser faggot in the eyes of your friends and family will actually grant you any protection from falling explosives).

So if Hamas and Gaza haven’t been broken after 500 TONS of explosive have been dropped PER SQUARE MILE on perhaps the most densely populated areas in the world (more than 15,000 people per square mile, 33 pounds per person, or 780lbs per acre)… What could the US do against say… Dallas-Fort Worth. With conventional weapons.