According to the poll, conducted from July 28 to Aug. 1 among 1,199 likely voters, Trump has garnered 50 percent support from likely Jewish voters to edge Harris' 49 percent. (Related: INSURRECTION: If Trump wins, Democrats plan to invoke Sec. 3 of the 14th Amendment to prevent him from taking office.)
This shift in support comes amid growing concerns among some pro-Israel supporters regarding Harris' stance on the Jewish state. Voters in the state argue that her support for Israel has diminished, especially in light of her actions and statements since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Gaza Strip.
In March, Harris became the first Democratic official to call for an "immediate ceasefire" in the conflict. Later that month, she warned of potential "consequences" for Israel if it proceeded with its planned invasion of the Gazan city of Rafah during an interview with ABC News.
These positions have raised questions about her commitment to the security of Israel and her relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Harris also appeared to sidestep questions regarding whether Netanyahu had become an "obstacle to peace."
"I believe that we have got to continue to enforce what we know to be and should be the priorities in terms of what is happening in Gaza," Harris said at the time. "We've been very clear that far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. We have been very clear that Israel and the Israeli people and Palestinians are entitled to an equal amount of security and dignity."
Moreover, the poll coincides with Harris' recent decision to pick Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Conservative Jew. This choice has sparked speculation that it was influenced by Shapiro's lack of popularity within the Democratic Party, which has increasingly adopted a more sympathetic stance toward Palestinians since the conflict in Gaza began.
Jewish voters historically leaned toward Democratic candidates
Jewish voters have historically leaned heavily toward Democratic candidates.
According to the American Enterprise Institute, Jewish voters have supported Democrats over Republicans by a average margin of 71 percent to 26 percent since 1968. This trend held strong in recent elections, with Jewish voters favoring President Joe Biden over Trump by 68 percent to 30 percent in the 2020 election; and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 71 percent to 26 percent in 2016.
This slight lead for Trump marks a significant change from his previous standing against his former Democratic opponents, especially given New York's voting history.
In June, Biden led Trump among likely Jewish voters in the state, 52 percent to 46 percent. However, the race dynamics changed dramatically in July when Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, who quickly secured the Democratic nomination.
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