The AARP poll, conducted from May 28 to June 4 among 600 likely Arizona voters, indicates that voters in the state overall lean towards Trump, with 45 percent support compared to Biden's 37 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. follows with 11 percent, while Jill Stein of the Green Party came in at three percent. Chase Oliver, the candidate of the Libertarian Party, failed to draw any significant support. Four percent of respondents remain undecided. (Related: Poll: Trump LEADS Biden in seven key swing states.)
Trump's lead over Biden widens to 52 percent against 43 percent among 800 likely voters aged 50 and over, while Trump and Biden are tied among female voters of the same age. But despite Biden's apparent weakness among older voters, the AARP poll does not indicate a broader party split in Arizona.
This detailed segment also highlights a stronger preference for Trump among older voters in the state and a potential vulnerability in Biden's support base as the election draws nearer.
In a two-way race scenario with Biden among respondents aged 18 and over, Trump maintains a six-point lead, with 50 percent of the vote compared to Biden's 44 percent. Four percent of voters are undecided and two percent express support for another candidate. Additionally, Trump holds a six-point advantage with independents in both the multi-candidate and head-to-head races.
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Moreover, the poll reflects voters’ dissatisfaction with Biden’s performance during his term, with only 36 percent approving of his job performance and 62 percent disapproving. In contrast, Trump enjoys a favorable retrospective approval rating, with 53 percent of respondents approving of his performance during his presidency, compared to 46 percent who disapprove.
Biden launches campaign rally to attract senior voters in Arizona
This polling data suggests a fresh challenge for Biden, whose support has been waning among voters without college degrees, young voters and Black voters since the 2020 election. This, in turn, led Biden's campaign to intensify its outreach to older voters in Arizona.
For instance, the Biden campaign has launched the "Seniors for Biden-Harris" initiative that incorporates a mix of traditional campaign rallies, phone banks and unique social events such as bingo nights and pickleball games to engage older voters.
"Seniors are such a critical part of our coalition," said Biden campaign manager Julia Chavez Rodriguez. "It is vitally important that we engage them this election cycle because they know President Biden is the only candidate in this race fighting for lower prescription drug and health care costs and to protect and safeguard Medicare and Social Security. [First Lady Jill Biden] is both a trusted voice for seniors speaking to the issues that matter most to them and a galvanizing force to activate our supporters ahead of the election."
The campaign is focusing on older adults, who not only have a higher voter turnout compared to the average American but also constitute a significant portion of the population in key swing states. This demographic’s support is seen as crucial for maximizing the campaign's chances of defeating Trump.
In March, the Biden campaign announced plans to highlight Republican threats to Social Security and Medicare in critical states, including Arizona, through an advertising campaign and multiple press conferences.
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