According to a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted from June 5 to 7 among 1,615 registered voters, only 80 percent of respondents confirmed their intention to vote in November. This figure represents a drop from similar polls in 2020. In one poll conducted from April 28 to May 1, 2020, among 2,200 adults, 83 percent of Americans indicated they would vote, while a subsequent poll in July 2020 showed that 89 percent of Americans were committed to voting.
It might look like a small decline, but this seemingly small decrease in voter intent could still affect the election outcome considerably, especially in key swing states where the race is expected to be tightly contested and victory in each state could come down to just several thousand votes like in 2020.
"Small changes in turnout could be pivotal in battleground states. Many recent presidential elections have been decided by razor-thin margins in key battleground states, and turnout changes could have swung the result the other way," said Anthony Fowler, a professor of public policy at the University of Chicago.
Fowler noted that many voters, particularly moderates and independents, may be disappointed with their options.
Moreover, Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University in northern New York, stated that issues such as the Gaza conflict and economic dissatisfaction could further discourage voter turnout, particularly among younger, progressive voters.
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"[There's] a general unhappiness about the direction the country is headed, as well as the current state of politics, combined with the perception that neither main party candidate is doing much to help that problem, or even wants to," he said.
Increased voter turnout now benefits Republicans
Historically, higher turnout has favored Democrats. However, Fowler pointed out this trend might shift due to Democratic gains among college-educated voters. (Related: Myra Adams shares wild PLOT TWISTS that could upend 2024 presidential election.)
"Republicans historically have had more consistent turnout, and the particular issues deflating voters seem to be more concentrated on the Democratic side – especially among younger voters, who President Biden has been courting heavily," Fowler said. "It's no longer obvious that higher turnout would benefit the Democrats. There are likely a lot of disaffected, working-class people who are less likely to vote but prefer Trump over Biden."
A recent analysis conducted by Dan Hopkins, a University of Pennsylvania political scientist, draws on data from a survey conducted by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago from Feb. 20 to Mar. 18.
The survey, encompassing 2,462 English- and Spanish-speaking adults, shows that Trump has significant support among infrequent voters. Specifically, among respondents who did not vote in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections, Trump leads President Joe Biden 44 percent to 26 percent. Conversely, Biden performs better among consistent voters, leading Trump 50 percent to 39 percent among those who voted in the last three general elections.
This shift is attributed to the "diploma gap," where voters with higher education levels who are more likely to vote increasingly support Democrats. In contrast, lesser-educated voters have gravitated toward the Republican Party. As education correlates with voter turnout, Democrats now find greater support among regular voters, while Republicans benefit from mobilizing less frequent voters.
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