The poll was conducted by the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer among 4,097 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from April 28 to May 9.
According to the poll, Trump holds the edge among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Biden only has a lead in Wisconsin.
Trump leads Biden by 47 percent to 44 percent in Pennsylvania, 49 percent to 42 percent in Arizona, 49 percent to 42 percent in Michigan, 49 percent to 39 percent in Georgia and 50 percent to 38 percent in Nevada. In Wisconsin, Biden is ahead with 47 percent compared to Trump’s 45 percent.
The margin narrows slightly among likely voters. In this demographic, Trump’s lead over Biden was reduced by one or two percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. However, in Michigan, Biden gains a slight advantage among likely voters, leading Trump by 47 percent to 46 percent. Conversely, in Wisconsin, Trump leads Biden 47 percent to 46 percent among likely voters. (Related: Poll: Trump LEADS Biden in five key swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina.)
The polling also considered scenarios with third-party and independent candidates.
With other candidates in the running, Trump continues to lead in Arizona (42 percent to Biden's 33 percent and to 10 percent for other candidates), Georgia (39 percent to 31 percent to 9 percent), Michigan (38 percent to 36 percent to 9 percent), Nevada (41 percent to 27 percent to 12 percent) and Pennsylvania (40 percent to 36 percent to 10 percent).
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In Wisconsin, Trump and Biden are tied at 38 percent each, with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnering nine percent support. Other third-party candidates received no more than two percent in any of the match-ups.
Biden campaign pollsters remain in denial of Trump's consistent lead against Biden
These figures mirror the trends from the last last New York Times/Siena College poll conducted back in October 2023.
At that time, when primary voting had not yet begun, Trump had already led Biden in Nevada (52 percent to 41 percent), Georgia (49 percent to 43 percent), Arizona (49 percent to 44 percent), Michigan (48 percent to 43 percent) and Pennsylvania (48 percent to 44 percent).
But just like the latest poll, Biden also led Wisconsin at that time with 47 percent and Trump at only 45 percent.
The poll results underscore significant hurdles for Biden, including low job approval ratings and concerns about his age and capability to lead. This comes despite Trump's extensive legal issues, with 91 criminal charges across four indictments, all of which he has pleaded not guilty to.
Across these six battleground states, Biden's job approval stands at 38 percent, with only 19 percent of voters rating the economy as excellent or good. Meanwhile, Trump has a 42 percent favorability rating, closely matched by Biden's 41 percent.
In these states, voters trust Trump more than Biden on issues such as the economy, immigration, national security and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while Biden is trusted more on abortion. Trust is closely split on handling democracy.
But despite the results of both polls, the Biden campaign remains in denial of Trump's consistent lead against Biden.
"The only consistency in recent public polls is inconsistency. These results need to be weighed against the 30-plus polls that show Biden up and gaining—which is exactly why drawing broad conclusions about the race based on results from one poll is a mistake. The reality is that many voters are not paying close attention to the election and have not started making up their minds—a dynamic also reflected in today’s poll. These voters will decide this election and only the Biden campaign is doing the work to win them over," said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster for the Biden campaign.
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