This is the assessment of Taiwanese National Security Council (NSC) Secretary-General Wellington Koo, who told this to reporters in Taipei on Tuesday, Nov. 14, and added that Taiwan will continue to do everything to delay the PLA's invasion timetable by strengthening the island's defense capabilities. (Related: No longer political: China's recent military exercises a DRY RUN to INTERCEPT U.S. forces rushing to defend Taiwan.)
"I don't think it will happen in the near future or at least within one to two years," said Koo. "If China needs to carry out amphibious landing operations to take Taiwan, I don't think it will have such capabilities by 2027."
Koo declined to give a specific year that the NSC believes China could invade, saying only that Taiwan does not have intelligence suggesting Beijing is making imminent invasion preparations.
Koo's declaration also flies in the face of Chinese President Xi Jinping's desire to build a "world-class" military by 2027, a deadline that coincides with the 100th anniversary of the PLA.
But this does align with a previous statement made by then-Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, who said that Beijing's military would not be ready to invade Taiwan for "some time." Current Joint Chiefs Chair Charles Brown Jr. similarly doubted Beijing's current plans to take Taiwan militarily.
Koo noted that Beijing is facing a lot of mounting domestic crises that trump preparations for an invasion. Next year, analysts expect the gargantuan Chinese economy to enter a downturn.
Meanwhile, Beijing also has to prepare for the upcoming presidential election in both Taiwan and the United States, as well as deal with its response to ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
A variety of challenges await Beijing if it does try to take over the democratic and self-governing Taiwan militarily. The island is separated from China by more than 100 miles of open ocean, and its rugged coastline makes an invasion challenging, making landing on the island only feasible at certain parts of the island. While China does have the world's largest navy by number of vessels, its forces are largely untested.
Koo said Taiwan is also ready to deter the Chinese navy using a vast arsenal of handheld and mobile weapons platforms, including anti-ship missiles, drones, U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems and Javelin anti-tank systems.
These weapons and other defenses are designed to make any Chinese invasion attempt far too brutally costly.
Koo said the U.S. is already helping make Taiwanese defenses even more punishing. Washington has already moved up its plan to provide Taiwan with more HIMARS systems by one year to 2026. The delivery of other American weapons systems to the island previously delayed by the conflict in Ukraine is also being sped up in the face of constant Chinese aggression.
The official also noted that Taiwan's security cooperation with the U.S. remains close, with Washington constantly pushing Taipei to keep modernizing its military and expanding its defense preparedness, whole-society resilience, and the construction of asymmetric warfare capabilities.
"The U.S. has a stronger sense of urgency than Taiwan," said Koo.
Watch this clip from the "Worldview Report" reporting on how China and the United States continue to move naval vessels around Taiwan.