According to a social media post by Dave Wasserman, a political analyst from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, Biden will lose if the 2024 presidential election happens in November this year.
"What's so wild about the current political environment is that if the 2024 election were held this November, I believe a) Biden's numbers are so bad he'd lose to an indicted Trump and b) House Rs are so dysfunctional/out of sorts they would lose the majority," Wasserman wrote on X.
He pointed out that in 2020, Biden had a positive favorability rating while Trump's was around 41 percent. Yet, Trump came within 42,000 votes in crucial swing states. Wasserman suggested that with tied national polls, low Biden approval and other challenges like economic pessimism and international crises, Biden's chances look dire.
Multiple polls supported the statement by Wasserman.
For instance, in the recent polls conducted by Bloomberg and Morning Consult, Trump has taken the lead over Biden in five key swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Meanwhile, Trump and Biden are a toss-up in Michigan, with both candidates locked at 44 percent.
These results from different national polls contradict the prediction that Trump would not win due to multiple indictments.
Despite the uncertainties, Republicans still believe in the former president. "It felt like Trump was on his way to the Republican nomination, and many believed he was DOA in the general election. That is certainly not the case now. This is going to be a close race. This is going to come down to those six states," said Republican strategist Brian Seitchik.
Biden's camp ignores survey results
Meanwhile, Biden's campaign team remains unfazed by these early polls and points to the dynamic nature of public opinion.
"Coming off those historic midterms, President Biden's campaign is hard at work reaching and mobilizing our winning coalition of voters more than one year out on a winning, popular agenda. We’ll win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll," Munoz claimed.
Jim Messina, the campaign manager of former President Barack Obama in the 2012 elections, backed Munoz on his claims.
"Polls this far out are a distraction. This same time before the '12 election, pollsters were crawling over each other to call it for the GOP. BTW, Obama won," Messina posted on X.
But the competition between Trump and Biden remains neck-and-neck and even some Democrats acknowledged the results.
"I would say that we always knew the race was going to be close. With the kind of world that we're in … any party would be foolish to think the race is not going to be close or competitive in a competitive state, district or nation," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.
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