Republicans miss on midterms but there is some good news: Party picks up minorities, women, youth
11/10/2022 // JD Heyes // Views

For reasons that analysts are still trying to figure out, the highly anticipated Republican "red wave" that had been forecast by political pundits on both sides of the aisle did not materialize during the Tuesday midterm elections.

But the news is not all bad for the GOP: The party managed to secure larger percentages of votes from minorities, women, and young Americans.

In a trend that actually began with Donald Trump's first race in 2016, blacks and Hispanics broke for Republicans in larger proportions than any time in the recent past, the Daily Wire reported, citing exit polling.

"While Democrats won 76% of the black men’s vote in 2018, that margin was cut to 65% in 2022, an 11% boost for the GOP. Republicans also picked up an additional 7% from black women, according to exit poll data collected by CNN," the outlet reported.

"Democrats enjoyed a 29% edge among Latino men in 2018, but that was slashed to just 8% this time around. Latino women support also rose 14%," the Daily Wire noted further.

In addition, the margin of support from voters aged 18-29 also rose. In 2018, that figure was +35 percent for Democrats, but it fell to +28 percent this election cycle. And support from 30-44 year olds went from +19 percent in support of Dems to just +4 percent. What's more, Democrats enjoyed a +19 percent support margin among women but that fell by more than half to just +8 percent in 2022.

“When Democrats took control of the House after the 2018 election, a little more than half of voters were women and the party had a huge advantage among them. Even though women represented a similar majority of voters in 2022, Democrats’ lead appears to be cut noticeably,” CNN reported.


Republicans grew their support among men as well. In 2018, Republicans were +4 percent over Democrats, while on Tuesday, that number climbed to +14.

Here is another shocking stat: During the 2018 midterms, Democrats saw a +33 percent margin of support among urban voters, but that figure fell to just 17 percent this time around, meaning crime waves in Democrat-controlled urban centers are likely having a deleterious effect on the party.

“Most American voters lived in the suburbs in both 2018 and 2022. But while suburban voters were evenly split when Democrats took control of the House four years ago, they moved toward Republicans in 2022,” CNN reported.

“An already-strong Republican lead among rural voters got even bigger and Republicans even ate into Democrats’ lead in urban areas,” according to the data, as rural support soared from +14 percent to +29 percent for Republicans.

More moderate voters also broke for Republicans, as the Democrats’ 2018 margin slipped from +26 to +15.

“Both Democrats and Republicans improved their performance among the party faithful. But Republicans built a lead among voters who don’t have a favorable view of either party. Democrats lost their edge among voters who have a favorable view of both parties,” according to the data.

All said, however, young voters had a major impact on a number of close, high-profile races, including the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, according to an analysis from Tufts University.

“In the Pennsylvania Senate race, where Democrat John Fetterman won by a slim 1% margin, youth ages 18-29 preferred Fetterman 70% to 28%, compared to 55% to 42% among voters ages 30-44, with voters over 45 preferring Republican candidate Dr. [Mehmet] Oz,” according to the college’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE).

“In the Georgia Senate race that may go to a runoff election, whereas of midnight on election night less than 1% separated the candidates, youth backed Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock 63% to 36%,” CIRCLE noted further.

“Voters ages 30-44 backed Warnock 56% to 41%, while voters over 45 gave a majority of their votes to GOP challenger Herschel Walker. Notably, the youth share of the vote in Georgia was 13%, slightly higher than the national rate,” the center added.

Sources include:

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