Just hours after Gov. Ducey announced that Arizona was "headed in the right direction," his administration is said to have told a team of experts to cease their work, which had predicted an infection peak several weeks later.
"We've been asked by Department leadership to 'pause' all current work on projections and modeling," wrote Steven Bailey, the bureau chief for public health statistics at the Arizona Department of Health Services, in an email to his modeling team, which includes researchers from Arizona State University (ASU) and the University of Arizona.
Instead of relying on these local epidemiologists, which were painting a dire picture for Arizona's future, state officials are instead opting for "real-time" information in the now, as well as modeling conducted by federal agencies, none of which is released publicly.
President Donald Trump, who donated his salary to fight the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19), also paid a visit to Arizona right around the time when this decision was made, during which he admitted that "some people will be affected badly" by the decision to reopen Arizona for business.
"The approach seems to be, 'Shoot the messenger – and quick,'" stated Josiah Rich, an epidemiologist from Brown University who disagrees with Gov. Ducey's approach to the situation.
In that same email from Bailey, it was stated that the Arizona Department of Health Services is pulling back "the special data sets which have been shared under this public health emergency effort." Six weeks ago, however, the state had actually requested more expert input, which Bailey said would give him and other modelers "full, unfettered access to confidential ... data from the Department."
"This is a situation that is unprecedented in living memory, and it is going to become rapidly more dire in the coming days," Bailey wrote alarmingly in a previous email. "I cannot, therefore, overemphasize the importance of what we are requesting here."
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Besides these epidemiologists, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a Democrat lawmaker from Arizona, has spoken out against Gov. Ducey's decision. She stated, "We can't just remove scientific data and bury facts when it contradicts an agenda or narrative."
Will Humble, a former health director in Arizona, expressed similar sentiments. He told the media that he is concerned about the timing of this abrupt suspension, especially since it occurred just hours after Gov. Ducey had announced that he would be easing restrictions on restaurants, salons, barbershops, and other retailers.
"The optics don't look good," Humble is quoted as saying.
According to Patrick Ptak, a spokesman for the governor, the decision "had nothing to do with" either President Trump's recent travel to Arizona or Gov. Ducey's decision to phase-in the reopening of Arizona's economy. Instead, he says, the decision was made "after reviewing all of the data."
In the future, Arizona will use modeling developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) because this data "ensures our hospitals have capacity for any situation," this being the original stated purpose of the lockdowns before the goal posts were later moved.
Ptak says that Arizona is currently in the process of determining whether or not Arizona-specific projections on the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) can be made public.
More of the latest news about the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) is available at Pandemic.news.
Sources for this article include: