Coronavirus projection model death counts from March 6th through April 4th: How we get from 13 to 580 aggregate deaths in America
03/06/2020 // Mike Adams // Views

Yesterday we released Revision 1 of our Pandemic Projection Model that shows 2.1 million coronavirus deaths in America by July 4th if nothing is done to stop the spread.

For those who don't usually think in terms of exponential progressions, the numbers seem impossible. But in fact, we're already tracking very closely in terms of reality vs. the projected numbers.

Here, I'm publishing the expected coronavirus aggregate death count that we expect to see from March 6th (today) through April 4th, at which point the model currently projects 580 aggregate deaths in the USA.

The number of deaths being reported today for America is 15, meaning the real world numbers are already one day ahead of the projection model (which only predicts 13 deaths as of today).

Track these numbers each day to see where we are on the exponential growth curve

How do we get to 580 deaths? As the projection shows below, each day is tied to a projected aggregate death count. For example by March 15th, the model currently predicts 54 total deaths in the USA. (That's not 54 new deaths on March 15th, but 54 total deaths all the way up to March 15th.)

By March 20th, that number is expected to be 104 deaths.

If the real numbers that we observe each day turn out to be lower than these projected numbers, it means the model is too pessimistic and we will re-calibrate the model based on incoming real-world data. However, if the real numbers turn out to be higher than what's projected here, it would indicate that more than 2.16 million Americans would be expected to die by July 4th unless something is done to radically halt travel and social interaction.


In other words, the numbers you see below lead directly to 2.16 million deaths by July 4th unless something is done to stop the spread:

March 1: 3 aggregate deaths

March 2: 5

March 3: 6

March 4: 8

March 5: 10

March 6: 13 aggregate deaths

March 7: 15

March 8: 18

March 9: 22

March 10: 26

March 11: 30

March 12: 35

March 13: 40

March 14: 47

March 15: 54

March 16: 62

March 17: 71

March 18: 81

March 19: 92

March 20: 104

March 21: 118

March 22: 134

March 23: 151

March 24: 170

March 25: 191

March 26: 215

March 27: 241

March 28: 270

March 29: 303

March 30: 338

March 31: 378

April 1: 421

April 2: 469

April 3: 521

April 4: 580 aggregate deaths

That's how we get to 580 deaths by April 4th, according to the current projections.

We hope to see far fewer deaths during these days, indicating aggressive steps are being taken to achieve social isolation and distancing. Most likely, President Trump will declare a national emergency in either March or April. Extreme restrictions on travel will be put into place beginning in April and accelerating through May.

Those efforts may substantially halt the exponential growth curve of this virus. When that happens, we will add a new "suppression" factor to the projection model and recalculate the months of June, July and August.

The more aggressive the shutting down of society, the higher the suppression factor becomes. Ultimately, the only way to halt the spread of the virus is to get the R0 value below 1.0. Once that is achieved, the virus fades out within a matter of a few months. But achieving R0 of 1.0 seems almost impossible, which is why China couldn't contain it and no country on the planet has been able to stop its transmission.

That's how we got to over 6,500 infections in South Korea, of course. Or 4,700+ infections in Iran.

The U.S. is currently on track to see 2.1 million deaths by July 4th unless something is done to stop the spread

The United States is on the same exponential growth curve as South Korea, Italy and Iran. We're just a few weeks behind them on the same curve.

Again, most people don't understand that this virus is an "exponential track" that seems very small at first but rapidly explodes into an uncontrolled, sustained epidemic that spreads beyond containment. That's why U.S. governors and even the President are still getting bad information from advisors... because most bureaucrats can't do math.

It may already be too late to prevent millions of infections in America, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths. Those end results are very likely already "baked in" and cannot be avoided. It all depends on how quickly government officials shut down society and force the American population into strict isolation protocols. Only then will a "suppression factor" begin to slow the explosive, exponential growth curve.

It's pure mathematics at this point. And you can't argue with math, just like you can't negotiate with the virus.

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Mike Adams (aka the "Health Ranger") is the founding editor of, a best selling author (#1 best selling science book on called "Food Forensics"), an environmental scientist, a patent holder for a cesium radioactive isotope elimination invention, a multiple award winner for outstanding journalism, a science news publisher and influential commentator on topics ranging from science and medicine to culture and politics.

Mike Adams also serves as the lab science director of an internationally accredited (ISO 17025) analytical laboratory known as CWC Labs. There, he was awarded a Certificate of Excellence for achieving extremely high accuracy in the analysis of toxic elements in unknown water samples using ICP-MS instrumentation.

In his laboratory research, Adams has made numerous food safety breakthroughs such as revealing rice protein products imported from Asia to be contaminated with toxic heavy metals like lead, cadmium and tungsten. Adams was the first food science researcher to document high levels of tungsten in superfoods. He also discovered over 11 ppm lead in imported mangosteen powder, and led an industry-wide voluntary agreement to limit heavy metals in rice protein products.

Adams has also helped defend the rights of home gardeners and protect the medical freedom rights of parents. Adams is widely recognized to have made a remarkable global impact on issues like GMOs, vaccines, nutrition therapies, human consciousness.

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