Based on samples collected from Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19) patients in the Seattle area, Bedford determined that the official infection count likely doesn't match the actual count. A specialist in the area of viral dynamics, Bedford believes that many more people than are currently known have the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19), and that many of them probably passed it along to others without even knowing they were infected themselves – a phenomenon known as "cryptic transmission."
There are numerous ways to look at Bedford's model, but all of them suggest that the true number of infection cases is substantially higher than the official count. He believes that as many as 1,500 people may have contracted the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19) from the first known patient in Washington, identified as WA1, who traveled from the Chinese city of Wuhan to Snohomish County back in mid-January.
"There will be more in the whole state," Bedford warned in a series of tweets posted to his Twitter account. Bedford eerily added that he suspects the situation in the Seattle area right now is roughly the same as the situation was in Wuhan back around the turn of the new year. "Three weeks later, Wuhan had thousands of infections and was put in large-scale lockdown."
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Bedford put together two viral genome sequences with the help of the research team behind the Seattle Flu Study, one based on WA1 and the other based on WA2. Based on where these two cases fit on the broader evolutionary tree for the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19), he was able to reconstruct where the disease has likely spread over the past six weeks.
In Bedford's assessment, WA1 appears to have ignited a chain of transmission that first hit WA2 before quickly spreading to WA3 and beyond. And unfortunately, WA1 must have infected someone who developed only mild symptoms, and was thus overlooked for appropriate surveillance.
"The transmission chain that went through WA2 wasn't picked up, probably due to the fact that until last week, the testing effort was focused on sick people who were traveling directly from China or who were in direct contact with a known case," writes Alan Boyle for Geekwire.
In a recent blog post, Bedford agreed, writing that this lack of testing "was a critical error," and that it "allowed an outbreak in Snohomish County and surroundings to grow to a sizable problem before it was even detected."
Bedford has made it clear that his research, which was conducted with the additional help of epidemiologist Mike Famulare of the Institute for Disease Modeling, is still preliminary. But its conclusions are worth considering and taking action on, and in response to, as they suggest getting prepared and taking precautions to avoid infection.
One such precaution that holds incredible promise is supplementation with spirulina, which has been scientifically shown to help boost the body's natural type 1 interferon response, which contributes to fighting RNA viral infections like the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19).
For more related news about the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19), be sure to check out Pandemic.news.
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